Rafa vs Fergie - the rotation myth
Tettehsrafalution | November 12, 2007By now most of us have heard the supposed statistics of Rafa’s rotation policy - “99 straight rotations”, or so the story goes. I’ve often wondered exactly how these “99 straight rotations” were tallied. Were injuries taken into account? Changes to and from the team for mid-week mickey-mouse cup matches counted? What exactly went into the mysterious statistics that apparently show that Rafa rotates so much more than any other manager in the premiership?
I decided to look into this myself when I noticed that Rafa had selected the same line-up to face Chelsea at Anfield that faced Aston Villa the weekend prior on the opening day of the season, and yet he had apparently made 12 rotations within that period according one bandwagoner. Apparently the 6 changes he made for the midweek fixture against Toulouse, and the exact 6 changes he made to revert to the original line-up all counted as rotations!
So I decided to compare the level of consistency in UTD’s team selections to that (or the supposed lack of) consistency in Liverpool’s to see how significant the differences were. Like the bandwagoners, I made no exceptions for injuries or suspensions (Rooney’s and Ronaldo’s ommissions when hurt counted as much as Agger and Carra’s ommissions due to injury, as did Torres’, Xabi’s, Aurellio’s, and Voronin’s). I simplied tallied up all the team changes from week to week. Given the reputation Rafa has, I expected to see close to double the number of rotations in his selections as Fergies.
I was surprised.
I found that in UTD’s 17 matches so far this season (including Champions’ League and all other cup matches except the Charity shield - which is a friendly), Fergie has made 64 changes. An average of 3.76 changes per match. In Liverpool’s 19 matches to date, Rafa has made 94 changes to date - an average of 4.95 changes per match.
It appears that Rafa makes approximately 1 rotation more than Fergie does, and yet if you read the media-hype about the rotation policy at Liverpool, you’d think this wasn’t the case. I couldn’t be bothered to look at CSKA London’s average rotation, but I’m quite certain it would be somewhere between Fergie’s and Rafa’s numbers.
It would seem then that the media hoopla about the amount of rotation at Anfield has been somewhat exaggerated. Supposed pundits like Steve MacMahon (who I think plagiarizes the Alan Hansen column and passes off his old captain’s garbage as his own) have been harping on about the unsettled team at Liverpool, believing that the number of changes Rafa makes each game are to be blamed for Liverpool’s poor start to the season.
Wait a second - poor start to the season? At the moment, Liverpool are 6 points behind UTD with a game in hand, and yet to go head-to-head in either of the 6-pointers between the two sides. If our current start to the season is due to squad rotation, then perhaps the correct wording of the allegation ought to be: Liverpool’s best start to the season for more than half a decade is due to Rafa’s squad rotation.
But that said, it’s perhaps a bit too easy to attribute results to one factor alone. With referees giving arbitrary penalties, and the woodwork being hit, and injuries to key players and captains putting their country ahead of their club and all, there could be all manner of factors that could contribute to bad results like those at home to Birmingham and away to Portsmouth.
And yet these lazy journos would rather blame rotation, the easy culprit, than think a little harder to determine what has “gone wrong”. Funnily enough, many of these same lazy journos were singing and harping about Rafa’s dodgy zonal marking. And yet they now are mysteriously silent since Liverpool’s defense has suddenly become one of the meanest in the premier league.
Perhaps like their compatriots in Spain, the British press’ rotation critics will only be silent once Rafa has won the title his way - rotation policy and all…
i dont agree with everything there, but that was a
Dirtycheat | November 12, 2007i dont agree with everything there, but that was a really good read mate.
i am actually surprised by the figures fo united’s rotation. However, when you think about it, we have a very big squad and a lot of games to play, so it perhaps makes sense to rest or rotate one or two players. Also, perhaps we should take into account changes that were forced upon both managers due to injury and suspension
one thing fergie does that rafa doesnt, is that if a player is on form, he usually plays the next game, unless the next game is a small one. rafa just rotates fullstop. personally, i feel if a player is on top form, the manager should let him continue where he left off and play the next game.
I think you're right in that Rafa does rotate more
Tettehsrafalution | November 13, 2007I think you’re right in that Rafa does rotate more than Fergie. But they way you Rafa’s rotation policy discussed in the media, you’d think it was far more than actual.
Also, I agree that changes made for small-midweek matches and due to injury should have been left out - I only included them because they were included in coming up with the dodgy “99 straight rotations” statistic bandied around about Rafa’s policy. For example, between our first two matches (Villa and Chelsea) where the same line-up was used, the rotations to play toulouse were counted.
In any case, I think managers will have different styles. Fergie likes to let the opponenets worry about his team’s strategy, and UTD play the same way regardless of opposition. This works well in England but not so well in Europe. Rafa likes to adjust his formation and tactics to match his opponents, and, SO FAR, this has worked better in cups than in the league.
However, Rafa’s strategies worked for him in Spain, and judging by Liverpool’s improvement over the years he’s been around, they are yielding results in England too.
Rafa’s “horses for courses” approach occasionally means a player will be rotated after doing well if Rafa wants to use a different approach for the next opponent. But to the extent that Rafa gets his tactics right and Liverpool are successful in the long run, I think his rotation policy (as with zonal marking) will eventually silence it’s critics.
Different managers have different approaches, and the fact that Rafa rotates more than Fergie shouldn’t matter any more than the fact that Wenger’s team pass their opponents to death while Fergie prefers a direct speed based counter-attacking game. It’s just a matter of style and method and different coaches will employ different approaches to the game.
The ends justify the means…
yeah i agree, rafa's rotation policy is somewhat over-criticised by
Dirtycheat | November 16, 2007yeah i agree, rafa’s rotation policy is somewhat over-criticised by the media. It’s as though he never fields the same player 2 games in a row. Like you said, every manager has different aproaches, his is to clearly pick the most suitable team to play against their next opponents based more on attributes than form. Plus liverpool have some extremely different options in positions such as midfield and attack. is crouch vs torres, kuyt vs babel etc. so perhaps he does have a reason to rotate so much.
personally i think soon enough the big four will have to rotate more and the players will need to accept competition. There are a lot of games, and titles can be won or lost by one or two games, so it is important to have a big enough squad to deal with injuries to big players.
I was mildly amused by the fact that UTD lost
Tettehsrafalution | November 29, 2007I was mildly amused by the fact that UTD lost to Bolton when Ronaldo was rotated, err - sorry, I mean - “rested”, and there wasn’t much said in the media about squad rotation!
Rafa is expected to rest, err - sorry, I mean “rotate” a few players against Bolton as well and should Liverpool drop points, I’m sure we’ll see Alan Hansen and a few other lazy journos going on about squad rotation!
It's a matter of consistency in the lineups that you
Michael | December 4, 2007It’s a matter of consistency in the lineups that you bring to the table. I remember reading an article about Rafa’s managerial record at Liverpool. Something like 90+% of his starting lineups were never the same. And it wasn’t due to injury. So basically, he was playing lineups that weren’t necessarily at there strongest. You can’t do that in the EPL over the course of the season and expect to win. Impossible. You field your strongest 11 unless:
a. a player is injured
b. you are resting players for important matches
Sir Alex tends to use a consistent starting 11 and ride them out over the course of the season. As mentioned, the same cannot be said about Rafa.
I agree - Rafa and Fergie have very different approaches.
Tettehsrafalution | December 4, 2007I agree - Rafa and Fergie have very different approaches. Fergie’s policy is as you describe it Michael, but Rafa’s involves keeping the opponent guessing, and adapting his line-up to face the opposition. Rotation does not always mean fielding a weaker team, if you have strength in depth and quality in reserve. For Rafa’s strategy to work, a large squad is needed - for Fergie’s to work, a great 1st 11 is needed with a bit of luck on the injury front (notice your need to sign emergency replacements after 1 or 2 injuries to strikers).
It’s only this season that Rafa has had a deep squad like the one he had at valencia, and even now he isn’t finished strengthening. Currently, Rafa can choose from 5 different midfielders (depending on the opposition and what tactics he decides to adopt) without sacrificing quality. Gerrard, Alonso, Lucas, Momo and Mascherano - all 5 bring different qualities that allow Rafa to adopt a horses for courses approach. E.g against Barcelona in last season’s champions league quarterfinal away - Momo sissoko’s hounding and all action, non-stop running and closing down style was crucial. He prevented Deco and Xavi from getting time on the ball and this was the cornerstone of Rafa’s approach. Momo may not be as good a distributor as Lucas or Alonso or Gerrard, but for this strategy and tactical approach, Momo is 2nd to none. Also when Rafa decides to stifle or to control the midfield, Mascherano and Alonso provide the perfect defensive foil with long range passing. Gerrard and Lucas are perhaps more attacking, and as such Rafa has many different “options” at his disposal.
We can now bring on Babel for Kewell without losing quality, Voronin for Kuyt, Yossi for Pennant, Arbeloa for Aurellio or Riise, or Finnan for Arbeloa - and change the style of play or tactical approach without reducing quality.
Granted there is still room for improvement (I’d happily exchange Pennant for a decent winger for example), but Rafa can rotate without reducing the quality of his starting XI.
So the fact that Rafa rotates says more about our quality in depth than anything else. The fact that we have scored 21 goals and conceded 1 in our last 5 matches, should silence those who were talking about rotation policy being to blame for Liverpool’s “poor start” - mind you, in the 18 titles we’ve won, there’ve only been 2 better starts; so this “poor start” is in fact better than 16 out of the 18 title winning starts!
Not sure what all the fuss about rotation is really, except that it’s different and new and like zonal marking, is criticized until it is proven to work.